UBS projects a mixed yet cautiously optimistic U.S. economic outlook through 2027, anticipating fiscal changes and increased tariffs under a Republican-controlled government. Initial moderate economic slowdown is expected, with nonfarm payroll growth declining to 148,000 jobs per month by September 2025, while inflation is predicted to ease, prompting potential interest rate cuts. An economic acceleration is forecasted for 2027 as tariff effects and tax policy uncertainties diminish, though high deficits and unpredictable factors may influence growth.
